Three Events and the Tapestry of the Next Decade

From STRATFOR: (Edited by me)
Three Events and the Tapestry of the Next Decade
Three completely disconnected events occurred this week that will weave together the tapestry of the next decade — and, no, those events do not include the $700 billion Wall Street bailout or the U.S. vice presidential candidate debate.

First, Brazil on Oct. 1 made its short list of finalists to supply it with modern jet fighters as part of a large defense modernization program. The final list included the French Dassault Rafale, the Swedish Saab Gripen NG and the American Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.



By any measure, Brazil is a rapidly rising power, and this has nothing to do with the fact that it has discovered an obscene amount of oil in its offshore regions in the past year. Brazil's traditional competitors — Argentina and Venezuela — are in the process of mismanaged economic collapse, leaving Brazil with no competitors in its neighborhood.



More notable than what designs made Brazil's final cut is the design that failed to: Russia's Sukhoi Su-35.



Brazil is emerging on the world stage. The decisions it makes now will shape its policy — and thus that of the rest of the world — for decades to come. Brazil deliberately chose to go with a Western system for its airpower.



The second major event occurred in Washington, where the U.S. Senate gave final approval to a U.S.-Indian agreement allowing full nuclear trade between the two states. Until now, India had languished under nuclear sanctions explicitly designed to retard New Delhi's nuclear weapons and electricity programs.



India too is an emerging power, and, like Brazil, it has been its own worst enemy for decades. The United States has always viewed India as a potential ally: It is a large market, is democratic, is a rival of China and is sufficiently hedged in by geography to never really be a long-term threat to American interests. The nuclear deal does more than simply allow for U.S. industry to help the Indians out with their nuclear program — it is the start of a broad, deep strategic alliance based on concerns about China and Islam.



The third event happened in St. Petersburg, Russia: Germany and Russia held their biannual bilateral government summit.



Germany is the closest thing that Russia has to a friend in Europe these days. And considering that Chancellor Angela Merkel is openly distrustful and critical of the Russian government, that is truly saying something. Merkel certainly wants to stand up to Russia but she has found herself trapped by geography and history. Her country is economically dependent on Russian energy supplies. It could be far easier for the Germans to cut a deal with the Russians to share influence in the regions that lie between them. This has happened before — and has been known to lead to a world war.



And, with that, the broad lines of the next decade have already been sketched. Brazil and India are both emerging as major powers, and doing so in a way that will not challenge — and may well dovetail with — American power. Germany faces a truly agonizing choice: a confrontation that will make it suffer greatly, or a conciliation that will make its neighbors suffer even more.